Validated signals. Transparent results.

Data first, not opinions YourBetMan does not publish picks based on personal belief, intuition or unsupported “sure win” claims. Every published signal is generated from historical match data, mathematical probability estimates and available market odds.

Screen all, analyse the strongest The system screens the day’s official fixtures, excludes unsuitable competitions and gives priority to major European leagues and UEFA competitions. Deep analysis is reserved for the highest-priority eligible fixtures rather than filling the site with low-quality picks.

Last-10 validation Both teams must have 10 completed previous matches available. The model examines wins, draws, losses, goals scored/conceded and home/away scoring patterns before calculating market probabilities.

Mathematical market selection The model estimates probabilities across 1X2, Double Chance, Over/Under and BTTS markets. It selects one strongest market per fixture and compares the model probability with available odds.

Value and publication filters A signal must satisfy probability, odds and positive value-edge requirements. If the strict criteria are not met, the fixture is labelled No Bet and is not published as a Daily or Elite signal.

Separate performance records Elite and Daily signals have separate histories, wins, losses, pending results, profit units and ROI. Results remain visible after settlement so performance can be evaluated transparently over time.

ELITE VALUE · Gold The stricter category. An Elite signal requires model confidence of 90% or higher, available odds within the approved range and a positive value edge. All Elite signals are tracked separately from Daily picks.

DAILY QUALIFIED · Blue A conservative signal that passed the Daily probability, odds and positive-edge requirements. It is not simply a likely outcome; it must also pass the value filters defined by the model.

Confidence % The model’s estimated probability for the selected market, based on the available historical data and goal model. It is an estimate, not a guarantee that the selection will win.

Odds The decimal bookmaker price found for the selected market. Very low odds and excessively high odds are filtered out because probability alone does not define whether a selection has acceptable value.

Edge +% The difference between the model probability and the probability implied by the available odds. A positive edge means the model estimates a higher probability than the price implies. It is a model estimate, not guaranteed profit.

Likely score The most likely scoreline generated by the goal model. It is context for the selected market, not a separate exact-score recommendation.

PENDING The fixture has not yet been settled. The final score and profit/loss unit will appear after the match is completed and the result is verified.

WIN The selected market was successful according to the final recorded result. Profit units use a one-unit stake calculation: winning profit is odds minus one.

LOSS The selected market did not win. A loss is recorded as −1 unit. Losses remain visible in the history and are never removed from performance statistics.

Win rate The percentage of settled picks that won: wins divided by all settled picks. Pending fixtures are not included until they are settled.

Profit units A standardised measurement using one unit per pick. For example, a winning selection at odds 1.50 returns +0.50 units; a losing selection records −1.00 unit.

ROI Return on investment across settled picks. It compares total profit/loss units with the number of settled one-unit selections. Daily and Elite ROI are shown separately.